SmartBettors

Premier League

Manchester City

12

Full time

Aston Villa

Sunday, May 24, 2026 - …
Head to head

Last 6 matches

Manchester City3
Draws0
Aston Villa3
Market movements

Pre-kickoff odds for this fixture — same timeline as Radar pattern explorer.

Market
Selection
Scanning
Closing odds

Full-time result

Home win

1.41

Implied 70.92%

Draw

5.23

Implied 19.12%

Away win

7.32

Implied 13.66%

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5

1.41

Implied 70.92%

Under 2.5

3.00

Implied 33.33%

Captured …

Match briefing
MATCHManchester City vs Aston Villa
LEAGUEEngland · Premier League · 2025/2026 · final round · matchday 38/38
KICKOFF…

ODDS

Odds from our snapshot feed · captured …
Over/Under 2.5:
Over 2.5: 1.43 (implied 69.93%)
Under 2.5: 2.90 (implied 34.48%)
Full-time result:
Manchester City: 1.40 (implied 71.43%)
Draw: 5.27 (implied 18.98%)
Aston Villa: 7.52 (implied 13.3%)

TEAM STRENGTH

Manchester City: 2/20 · 78 pts · GD +42 · 7 pts off leader · zone: ucl
Aston Villa: 4/20 · 65 pts · GD +7 · 20 pts off leader · zone: ucl

RECENT FORM

Manchester City last 5: 3W-2D-0L · trend D W W W D (oldest → newest)
Aston Villa last 5: 2W-1D-2L · trend W L L D W (oldest → newest)
Manchester City avg goals scored last 10: 2.30
Aston Villa avg goals scored last 10: 1.60
Manchester City avg goals conceded last 10: 0.60
Aston Villa avg goals conceded last 10: 2.00
Manchester City form quality: high (overall sample 10)
Aston Villa form quality: high (overall sample 10)

GOAL PROFILE

Manchester City over 2.5 rate last 10: 70%
Aston Villa over 2.5 rate last 10: 60%
Manchester City BTTS rate last 10: 40%
Aston Villa BTTS rate last 10: 70%
Manchester City clean sheets last 10: 6 · failed to score: 0
Aston Villa clean sheets last 10: 1 · failed to score: 2

VENUE PROFILE

Manchester City home form: 5W-0D-0L · 2.8 GF / 0.4 GA · O2.5 100% · BTTS 40%
Aston Villa away form: 0W-2D-3L · 0.8 GF / 1.8 GA · O2.5 40% · BTTS 60%
Manchester City home over 2.5 rate: 100%
Aston Villa away over 2.5 rate: 40%
Manchester City home BTTS rate: 40%
Aston Villa away BTTS rate: 60%

H2H

Matches analyzed: 8 (lookback 8)
Avg goals per match: 3.000
Over 2.5 rate: 63%
BTTS rate: 75%
Manchester City W-D-L vs Aston Villa: 4-1-3

MOTIVATION

Stakes: both sides in European qualification places — direct race for continental football

MARKET CONTEXT

AH opening → current: -1.5 → -1.25 (Δ 0.25, toward Aston Villa)
AH movement archetype: late_sharp_away — late sharp money toward Aston Villa
Line activity: 8 changes · 38/24 snapshot hours
Largest single move: -1.25 → -1.75 (toward Manchester City)

SIGNALS

Clear favourite (Over/Under 2.5): yes
Clear favourite (Full-time result): yes
Market leans away from form (Over/Under 2.5): no
Market leans away from form (Full-time result): no
Play-off fixture: no
Top vs bottom mismatch: no
Both in European spots: yes
Relegation six-pointer: no
Mid-table low motivation: no

RISK FLAGS

None — data coverage and signals look clean

QUALITY

Season stage: final round
Season certainty: 1.00 (season fully formed)
Form coverage: home full · away full
H2H coverage: full
Standings available: yes
Asian handicap snapshots: available (completeness 1.583)